Gunnar is back from a rain-soaked trip to Hawaii to talk about oil prices, airfare, and what’s next for flight prices - plus, an update on what’s happening at TSA checkpoints across the country as the partial government shutdown drags on. But Gunnar can’t stop talking about his vacation, so he gives a review of Hawaiian Airlines First Class, reveals his grand theory of travel, and the guys pitch a visit to Minneapolis for the Thrifty Traveler Podcast Live Show in June! The Thrifty Traveler Podcast is going LIVE: Join us Friday, June 12 in Minneapolis! Buy your tickets now! Thanks to our sponsor, Saily! Download Saily in your app store - use our code THRIFTY at checkout to get an exclusive 15% off your first purchase https://saily.com/thrifty 🌍
Gunnar is back from a rain-soaked trip to Hawaii to talk about oil prices, airfare, and what’s next for flight prices - plus, an update on what’s happening at TSA checkpoints across the country as the partial government shutdown drags on. But Gunnar can’t stop talking about his vacation, so he gives a review of Hawaiian Airlines First Class, reveals his grand theory of travel, and the guys pitch a visit to Minneapolis for the Thrifty Traveler Podcast Live Show in June!
The Thrifty Traveler Podcast is going LIVE: Join us Friday, June 12 in Minneapolis! Buy your tickets now!
Thanks to our sponsor, Saily! Download Saily in your app store - use our code THRIFTY at checkout to get an exclusive 15% off your first purchase
00:00 - Recapping Gunnar’s trip to Hawaii
04:40 - Marcus welcomes us back to the show from Cabo
05:00 - A review of Hawaiian’s fancy first class suites
10:32 - Gunnar’s Grand Theory of Travel
14:45 - TSA News: Lines, ICE agents & more
20:12 - A word from our sponsor: Travel abroad with an eSim from Saily!
21:25 - Oil prices (and airfare) are going up. What’s next?
34:30 - What you should do now & where to find deals
45:50 - Gunnar gets spotted & pitching Minneapolis
52:20 - On the Spot: What’s the most you’ve paid for a flight?
Produced and edited by Sylvia Thomas
Video editing by Kyle Thomas
Show music: “All That” by Benjamin Tissot
Welcome to the show. I'm your host, Gunnar Olson here, as always with Thrifty Traveler, executive editor Kyle Potter. And today we're talking about tons of travel craziness, uh, including what's happening with airfare as oil prices skyrocket. There's also a tense situation at TSA screenings at dozens of airports across the country in general.
There's just. A ton of important news in travel. So I think we'll start at a logical jumping off point with my cute little family trip to Hawaii. Does that sound good to you, editor Kyle? This is a good editorial decision.
Nailed it. I, I very great segue.
Tone deafness is our, is the key here to,
we are nothing, if not oblivious to self-awareness.
Um. Yeah, I, we will touch on all those things, I promise. But I did want to talk about my, my latest vacation to Hawaii, which was, uh, rain soaks, Kyle. We had a historic rainfall, uh, the mo the rainiest period in Hawaii since 1940. And I was there for all of it. We had three sunny days out of 11 days on the islands, which was a tough beat.
Um, but it was still, it was a lovely vacation. We had like. Uh, a lot of family there. We had Megan, my wife's whole family, and uh, lots of my family there as well. So everyone got to hang out with Little Emery and it was really lovely. We stayed at, we were there. The whole purpose of the trip was to go to Oahu for a wedding, uh, that was in Waikiki, and we stayed at the Hyatt Regency Waikiki.
Is not the most inspired property in the world, I would say, but I will say their entire power went out. They had a thousand guests and 97% occupancy. Oh. And they still checked everybody in. They got me a room key. We were on the 26th floor. No elevators, no escalators, and. I was blown away, shocked at how well this hotel handled literally an emergency situation because the streets were flooding and they had no power with a thousand guests.
It was actually impressive.
I mean, if you had to pick anywhere to be during historic storm,
the 26th,
sixth
floor,
Hawaii's not a bad place to be. Well, yeah. Especially on the 26th floor.
Yeah. But it was, I, I, I don't, you know, you should never, uh, gauge a property based on their very worst day. But if that was their very worst day ever, I was super impressed with.
With how they did things at the Hyatt Regency. Why Kiki? But as you told me, I would, Kauai was everything. Yeah. The island of Kauai was, was so special and such a cool place and, and you told me it would be my favorite. And you were absolutely right. Perfect place.
I th that one of the best things about Hawaii, one of the many best things about Hawaii is that there is an island for everybody's speed.
Every single one of the big four islands, let alone some of the smaller ones that you can get to if you're really committed, has a completely different vibe. I've been to all four. Nothing against the other islands. Kauai is just the one for me. It's the one for, for my wife and I, it's the one for other members of our family because it's just, it's so laid back.
It's so built around nature and going out for hikes and enjoying the weather and. Fortunately, Kauai tends to be knock on wood, and it seems like this is what you experienced to the extent you did experience good weather. It was on Kauai. It just escaped some of the torrential rain sometimes that a lot of the other islands tend to get.
I mean, I vividly remember being in Maui a couple of years ago for six straight days of rain and looking at the forecast and looking at the weather radar and seeing like. Kauai's looking pretty dry. Do we hop on a $59 Southwest flight and get outta here? Yeah, there's uh, there's just something about Kauai for me.
It was so cool with the skies went blue for our day at Y Mea Canyon. It was, yeah. Special. Very, very cool place. I will, I'll share with you all, uh, if you're watching the YouTube video, um, a video that we'll put in here that I think is just worth a thousand words, it explains perfectly this whole trip.
There's a screenshot of it here in our rundown cow, so you could see, but it is a video of me. Sunburnt to a crisp around a golf shirt line in the pool with my daughter in the pouring rain, like drenched rain. And my mom took this video as my daughter and I were playing in the pool, and uh, it is just perfectly emblematic of this beautiful Kauai scenery.
Me and my daughter playing in the pool in the soaking rain, and I had the worst sunburn that I've had in maybe a decade. And, and last episode we talked about what my sunscreen strategy was gonna be.
You clearly did not take your own advice, let alone mine.
No, it rained for like 10 straight days, and on the 11th day I got a sunburn.
Of course. All right, let's get into it. Today on the show we're talking about what to expect with airfare. When will fares go up? How high, what's going to happen with taxes and fees? We've got all of the answers, all that and more
Ola. Or Gunner would say, yo Marcus, coming to you from Secrets Port Los Cabos Resort just outside of San Jose Del Cabo in Mexico.
Welcome back to the Turkey Crab Podcast.
All right. Welcoming us back to the show today was Marcus Gunderson from Secrets Pu Los Cabos Resort, who after all the crazy travel news from the past few weeks, Marcus was really setting a vibe. I think we all need right now. Is he the chillest guy on the planet in that video or what?
I think the rest of the travel world could take a cue from Marcus, just channel that.
Marcus, just chill out.
I watched your video so many times recently. It's, it was very fun. Thank you for sending that in.
But not, like, not in a creepy way
though. Not, but like, I just needed a vibe setter. Yeah. And that's exactly what it was. Okay, let's start with something hot and something cold to look at, the good and bad and travel from the past week.
And we'll start with something hot. Um, Kyle, on my way to Hawaii, I had a chance to fly Hawaiian first class, the Le Hoku Suites on the 7 87 Dreamliner. Um. It was exceptionally good, man. I, I was really, really impressed. I wish I had done this right before we'd ranked all of our favorite business classes in that bonus episode.
Um, but I, I wanna ask you a question. Do you prefer business class or flying live flat on the overnight or the daytime flights?
Can I say both?
You can, you can, but that kind of violates the spirit of the question.
I think I'm torn because on the one hand, um, you know, I think about Europe and the daytime flights are always coming back from Europe to the United States, and it's like, do I really need to sleep?
But the other thing is, is that those flights are, are always longer. Mm-hmm. Flying from east to west than west to east from the states to Europe. So I would probably just skew less around maybe. You know, whether it's a nighttime, overnight flight or a daytime flight and more towards which flight is longer, which 1:00 AM I gonna have more time to enjoy it on?
That said, I mean, nothing really beats having the ability to sleep overnight and, you know, if not arrive ready to go at least in better shape than you would without, uh, you know, if you. Crammed back in economy, but I I can do both.
Yeah, I was, I was just thinking about this question as it relates to this flight in particular.
'cause it was, it was a morning flight we left at 8:00 AM from Seattle to Honolulu, and I kind of just loved it because it takes the pressure off of sleeping. Mm-hmm. You know, like when you're on your way to Europe, you're like, I need to eat as fast as I can and get down so I can sleep for three and a half or four hours so that I can land, you know, reasonably.
Well adjusted human. And on this flight it was like, if I fall asleep, I fall asleep. Otherwise, I'm just gonna enjoy, you know, several guava, mimosas. I won't give you a number.
Def. Define several. Give us some context.
Uh. The, let's see, the context would be, it's a five and a half hour flight. I had one before boarding, and then I really just made it clear with my flight attendant who was excellent, maybe the best flight attendant I've ever had, that this was going to be what this, this flight was all about was some more guava Mims.
The first one was so good. The fourth one was just as good. Kyle. They didn't get worse, I promise.
Did you pull a, I don't want to see this glass empty.
No, I did not. But he, after the fourth one when my infant was sleeping on my chest, he maybe gave me a look like, all right, let's, how about a coffee, sir? You know, how about a water?
Um,
cut you off without verbally cutting you off.
Yeah.
Good guy.
No, it, our flight attendants were so good. Megan and I had two suites next to each other in the middle, so, uh, we had like the partition down, so it was basically just one big closed door suite, which I don't, I don't really care about doors in business class unless you have a very rest.
Less infant. And then having a closed door in business class is really nice 'cause she had some walls to bounce off of, uh, after she got up from her. Nice nap. But, um, the seats were awesome, big, spacious, wide seats. The service was really good. The food and drink was surprisingly good. I just kind of, it was a breakfast, it was, I had like this fried rice, fried rice breakfast dish that I really loved as well.
Um, the only downside is Honolulu Airport not. Not a great airport. Uh, the lounge situation there is pretty lackluster, especially for Hawaiian and Alaska Flyers. So that, that kinda highest end lounge. The plume Maria Plumer, I forget what it's now You
are nailing it.
Yeah. Whatever it Good job. Uh, it's. We didn't get access to it 'cause we were connecting onto an inner island, so it would've been 40 bucks each.
And that lounge did not look like it was worth 40 bucks each to me. So, um, we just, we opted against going in there. So that would be the only downside. But Hawaiian first class, if you can book it on the way to Hawaii, there's, there's no better way for sure.
I mean, I think. Honolulu, all of the, the Hawaiian airports, the best lounges anywhere outside in the terminal with open air.
Yeah, I mean, those, they're just some of the coolest airports in the world, especially within the United States. So lounges are, are, can be great. They're typically not all that great in the United States, unless if you're in a special business class lounge, just go out and get some fresh air. Walk around for an hour before your flight, you're gonna be fine.
Yeah, we sat in the courtyard for a while. I had a Gatorade 'cause I had spent my morning hammer hammering mimosas. So it was a good, uh, good reset for me. A little vitamin D and a Gatorade was not probably the best thing for me at that moment.
Over under six.
It was under six. It was under six. You're
sure?
Yeah. Now on the day, you know, the whole day. I don't know. But then on the flight it was under six.
Okay.
I kept,
I'll text Megan. We'll see.
Yeah, we'll see. Alright, let's pivot to something cold, which is also Hawaiian Airlines.
We're just going full bore on selfish gunner travel recap on an episode. That's about how everything in travel is awful.
Look, folks, uh, this is all about me. It always has been. I don't know what else you're tuning in for. Um, with the caveat that. W they were dealing with an exceptionally bad historic rain situation all over Hawaii. And some of the airport operations weren't good that all of my inter island flights were delayed in some regard.
On one of the inter island flights, the baggage belt went down at Honolulu and they, we sat in a two hour checked bag line and we had a car seat. Like we didn't have a choice, you know? So we were stuck in that line on all of the inner island flights. Emery was pulled off the reservation and I had to put her back on either at the last minute with an agent at the desk or at an with an agent over the phone.
Um, basically I was just really frustrated with Hawaiian's operations just within like the inter Hawaii flights, these really short flights, these 25 minute flights where. You know, and that on that same flight, they lost two thirds of our bags, all of us traveling together, and they lost almost all of our bags, and we had to wait for the next flight.
It was really frustrating, but I, I say all this to explain my grand theory of travel, Kyle, and that is that. In travel, it's just made up of millions of little micro impressions that people are making of airlines. So for that reason, every airline, every airport is someone's favorite and someone's least favorite, right?
Like I had the, maybe the best flight of my life in Hawaiian first class on the way to Hawaii, and then Hawaiian did me dirty, you know, five days later. And that's all I can think about now. And it's like, do I like or do I dislike Hawaiian Airlines? And you know, it just leads me to think. You know, be careful when you read reviews out there, especially, you know, uh, reviewers who are just leaving one star reviews on Google or whatever.
Like someone probably had the worst day of their life on the same flight where you had like the best flight of your life. And I'm just, I'm trying to put in perspective my, my grand theory of travel. What do you think about it? Yeah,
I mean. You can write a review of an airline or, or post something on social media about how great an airport was.
And you know, the first or second comment will be, I had a terrible experience in 1995. And it's like, okay, well grain of salt for me. Maybe my experience is not representative of the average person's experience. Maybe I just really lucked out. But I do wish everybody would have go into it with the perspective of, you know what, maybe the one bad experience that I just had is not indicative of this whole brand.
And it's not just like a pox on everyone just because I had a bad day.
Yeah. I'm not like a cranky traveler, but after the Hawaiian. Inner island stuff. I found myself just like really worked up and I had to just stop and think, like, I just had a really amazing experience for almost six hours in the sky and then this, you know, four hours total that they took from me.
The rest of the trip it's like, okay, maybe I need to take a step back and reconsider my opinion here.
I think an impor important piece of context for this is that. Hawaii's weather is generally speaking amazing year round. They very rarely deal with anything of this magnitude, which means that, you know, throughout the course of a year, all of the Hawaiian airports are typically the most on time.
Hawaiian Airlines is typically the most on time airline in the country, but all of that also means that. That these airports and that airline are not super well equipped to handle things when the weather turns. They just don't have the infrastructure in place to keep things moving. So you, generally speaking, I think people can go into a travel day with Hawaiian or through the Hawaiian Islands expecting things to go right.
But when things go wrong, they can go really, really wrong. 'cause they. They can't handle the punches the same way that you know here in Minneapolis, everybody knows to expect major snow snowstorms three, four times a year, which means that they've got all the infrastructure in place to deal with that stuff when it happens.
I mean, seeing the conga lines of snowplows going up and down the runways at MSP is spectacular. They just know. They know to prepare and have prepared for these things in ways that Hawaii just really doesn't need to. And unfortunately, sometimes the bill comes due.
Yeah, we were looking when on our flight back from Maui to Honolulu, I pulled up flighty and looked at all the alternative flights and there's something like 35 of those a day too.
So when something goes wrong, the uh, cascading effects throughout the islands are pretty wild. The, they fly so many frequencies between the islands. Alright, that's enough Hawaii for now. Uh, we have something colder this week, Kyle. It's something actually cold and not just a personal gripe or reflection.
Um. Maybe you came here for my personal gripes and reflections. Maybe you came here for the news. Let's get into the news. Uh, TSA security screening delays started getting really bad over the past week. Uh, unpaid TSA agents started calling out from work, which led to lots of, uh, long lines at airports, including like four plus hour delays at Atlanta and Houston.
Um, the caveat here is of course, all of this. Might be resolved by the time you hear this, it looks like we're nearing maybe an end to this shutdown. We
just, we don't know. I mean, it could go on, you know, we're, we're talking into these microphones right now on Tuesday, by Thursday this could be over. It could also extend for weeks at a time.
It just feels important to talk about it either way.
For sure. Um, the situation was really bad at select airports and not so bad at others. I, on my six flights over the past two weeks, never waited more than five minutes at the TSA Precheck lines at Seattle, San Diego, Honolulu, or any of the islands.
It took you all of two minutes to come back to yourself.
It was always about me. Um. So the, the big news lately is the Trump administration seized on this opportunity is now sending ice agents to help TSA agents at 14 us, I'm sorry, 13 US airports, including Atlanta, Houston Hobby, uh, O'Hare, all three New York City airports, on and on. Um. Exactly what the ice agents are doing there is unclear right now.
Uh, on Sunday in a series of interviews, the chief border official Tom Holman, said they'd be manning secure exits to free up more agents for screening and x-ray machines. Uh, the TSA administrator, Adam Stahl said they'd also be doing some crowd management and line control. Um. President Trump over the weekend said they would be doing aggressive immigration enforcement end quote while they're there as well.
Uh, all of this, of course, is happening during peak spring break travel, so airports are about as crowded as they get throughout the year. Uh, where's this go next?
No, we're good. Yeah. Uh, you know, at best case scenario, this gets wrapped up relatively soon if it hasn't already, which I think is long, long overdue.
This has been a nightmare, I think, in large part because it has been so unpredictable. Atlanta. Houston Intercontinental, the New York area. Airports New Orleans have been awful. I mean, two hour waits at the minimum, four hour waits on average. Uh, you know, in some cases as many as six to eight hours. I mean, people are.
Missing flights. It has gotten to the point where Delta and Atlanta and United at their Houston Intercontinental Bush hub have issued free change waivers to allow people to bump back their flights by as much as a week because people can't get through security checkpoints in time to make their flights.
This is awful, and as unpredictable as it is about when the delays are going to be bad, at which airports, at what time of day, pinning this stuff down is is awful. It's still been just fine at many airports across the country, but people are still showing up three, four hours early because all of the headlines dominating, you know, travel right now are about just how awful airport security is.
This stuff has to end, you know, this is. The second prolonged shutdown in a four month span where TSA workers who are woefully underpaid to begin with are working without pay for a month and a half and counting who in their right mind. Applies to join the TSA. Right now. They've already lost, like permanently lost more than 400 employees during this shutdown alone.
They lost more during the shutdown in October and November of 2025. It's gonna be more this time. This I worry, is going to have a long lasting impact on. Airport security operations across the country, even in airports that are, you know, operating smoothly like here in Minneapolis, like out in Seattle and much of the west coast.
And you know, if this really continues, it's going to have an enduring effect on travel demand as a whole. Because who again, who in their right mind wants to go to an airport right now And who out there is gonna rethink, well, do I really want to travel after what happened in March? And you know, maybe April if this continues.
And you know, to top it all off, we just are continually used to travelers, but especially TSA agents as leverage in Washington DC. And it's getting really disgusting. Why are they so obsessed with us? I don't get it. I, it's because it makes people angry and it gets people on Republican side or Democrat side for whatever it is they happen to be, you know, trying to negotiate at that time.
But man, this is getting really, really old.
Yeah. Uh, and unfortunately, long lines at the airport is something that plays very well in the news. Not to be media critic, uh, on this podcast here, but it's, you know, there's a reason why they're using the travel industry as pawns, and it's, uh, too bad. We're gonna talk a lot more about airfare now and what oil prices are going to mean for airfare and what you can do to protect yourself.
But first, we're gonna take a quick break.
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All right, it's time for the extra mile where we dig a little deeper on an important travel topic. And this week we're talking about airfare and the fear, or perhaps reality that fares are gonna go up.
Um, I don't want this to be all doom and gloom. Uh, we are trying to just prepare everybody, uh, give you a sense of what you can do and where you can still find deals. You know, this isn't all aboard the pain train. This is, here's how you can get around the nastiness if it does come to fruition. Uh, Kyle, where do we stand right now on airfare?
Where we stand is that. Jet fuel prices as a result of the broader global oil market and the closure of Derated. Horus have basically doubled, if not more within the last month. The prices vary day by day, but it's clear that airlines are looking at what's happening in the world, gestures broadly, and saying, you know what?
Price, our prices are up. We need to pass those costs onto consumers, and they're doing that by charging higher fares, which not just is going to happen, has happened already. I mean, we know that based upon what airline CEOs have told investors, which just as a, as an aside, if an airline tells. Investors something and they're happy about it, and investors are happy about that, you can pretty much guarantee it's bad for you and I and the rest of the consumers out there.
There's an inverse correlation there. So we've heard that. We've heard airlines admit to the fact that they've raised fairs. We've seen it ourselves. You know, our, our premium flight deal analysts have seen, you know, especially domestic flights, but definitely international too, Faires. You know, creeping up higher.
And then we've seen it anecdotally, which, you know, I know you track something like 150 to 200 Google flights, price alerts. I'm betting most of those are red showing increases and not green showing prices have dropped.
Yeah.
So that's what I'm seeing on my end too.
Yep. Absolutely. Seeing the exact same thing.
Prices are just, they're a little bit up across the board on all of the selfish individual little flights that I track.
Right. So this is. This is the reality we live in. And you know, I think the goal of this conversation is to help explain what's going on. Try to predict what's gonna happen next, and then maybe most importantly, try to help people figure out what they can do now and where they can find better deals.
So a bunch of industry executives, were all together this week talking about kind of the state of the industry. They seem to paint a pretty rosy picture, like you said, which usually is not good news for everyday travelers. Tell me a little bit about what they said and what it means for fares and, and.
Prices.
Well, first I want to kind of explain the broader dynamics of how flight pricing works because airlines will sit there and they will tell you our, our costs are going up, so we're going to raise fares. And it's just not quite that simple. Yes. You know, fuel for airlines is one of their biggest costs.
It costs them a lot of money. They spend billions of dollars on fuel a year, and all of these airlines. Told investors that they were anticipating to spend an extra $400 million in the month of March alone just on fuel compared to what they were planning to spend based on the previous prices. So that alone tells you that their costs are going up, but co their costs, whether it's fuel, labor, the pilots and flight attendants and crew, or the planes that we all pile into are ultimately.
A smaller piece of the pie of what really drives flight prices. It's really much more about supply and demand. Are there more people trying to fill seats than what airlines can offer them that drives prices up? Is demand dropping down below the supply of seats and the supply of flights? That drives prices down.
That really is the biggest thing. And then combined with competition between the airlines of which airlines are coming into Dallas and trying to undercut American because it's their hub, um, you know, the presence of ultra low cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier who can offer a much cheaper fare than American or Delta and United ever would.
And that forces those bigger carriers to compete more on price. Those are the bigger dynamics, and I think what we're seeing right now is that all of these dynamics, costs, competition, and supply and demand are unfortunately not in our favor right now. I think that's what a lot of what we've heard, or at least what I'm putting together, hearing the way that airlines are talking about these things.
So the airlines aren't eating these costs out of the goodness of their hearts to help travelers continue to travel.
I, I know they should be so much more magnanimous and No, and you know what, like, these are publicly traded corporations. They exist to make money. I get that. But at the same time, I do think it's really helpful to understand what is going on.
So, you know, if every, if the supply and demand balance were more in our favor, that there were just more seats out there than airlines could hope to fill. Then there would really be a ceiling for how high airlines could raise fares. But travel demand, despite the fact that it, it has certainly slowed down big picture travel demand has changed a lot in the last year, and it's tilted much more towards, as we've talked about on the show, premium travel, that there are more wealthy Americans out there who have more money than ever before.
And are more willing and able and ready to spend that on travel than they ever have been before. And you know, it's, it's interesting how much. You know, several airlines just in the last week have talked about the so-called KS shaped economy of, you know, basically the economy splitting between the Hals, you know, the wealthy people who are getting wealthier and the haves have nots.
You know, the people on the lower end of the economy who are struggling more than ever. So. Ed Baston, the CEO of Delta made this remark. He said, our economy is very strong, particularly the high end economy, that K that we talk about, and we serve the top end of that K and probably the highest end of that K.
That's a group that wants to continue to invest and is candidly a bit immune to what goes on with these geopolitical events. I mean, that kind of says it all, unfortunately. That you know, these airlines, especially the big airlines here in the US but increasingly abroad as well, are really focusing on the upper end of the economy.
And if demand among those people is as strong as they clearly feel it is and are still seeing, even as war has broken out in the Middle East, that gives them so much more room to raise Faires because the group that they care about. Filling their seats are willing and able to pay just as much, if not more, so they can raise fares even higher.
So, like I said, I think we're just getting it on every end here. The costs are up, which, you know, gives airlines the motivation to raise fares. They can raise those fares because their demand, at least as we're talking right now, is still pretty high. And then the competition, especially from, you know, these ultra low cost caries like spirit and frontier, which are really struggling even to survive, let alone compete with the big boys.
That competition that really moves the needle and pressures airline to keep co, to keep fares under control and lower them is as low as it's been in a long time. That's a rough dynamic for, you know, you and I and people listening to this who really just wanna find a good deal.
Yeah. So we're gonna talk about how to find some of those good deals and kind of what we're doing to protect ourselves.
But I guess I'll ask you to look ahead a little bit, Kyle, we've seen, you know, oil price spikes like this before. What is the past? Tell you about what might be ahead for us.
I mean, it's, it's really tough to pin down because, because of all of these factors that we just talked about of what drives flight prices.
You can never say, well, oil prices are up 60%, therefore fares are going to raise fif 60%. That's just not how it works. Even when airlines do have much more wiggle room to do what they exist to do and charge people as much as humanly possible while still filling their planes, they have to do this on a route by route.
Fair By fair basis, airfare is not a monolith. You know, there are millions upon millions of fares. Some are gonna go up, certainly some have already gone up and will continue to go up. Some will go down, some will stay the same. There are still going to be deals, it's just going to be harder to find some of them.
But big picture, I think the, maybe the biggest thing that we've heard from the airlines that tips off what they're doing, United CEO, Scott Kirby telling investors, again, basically bragging. To investors saying that, um, you know, they use this metric called booked yields, which is maybe the closest comparison point that we have right now to thinking about what airlines are charging per seat.
And he said that their booked yields are running up between 15% and 20% in the last week. So pricing has been going up as one would expect. Now, that doesn't mean that every United Fair again is up 15 to 20%, but the fact that within the space of just a week, and this was last week in mid-March. United is saying that they've pushed up 15 to 20% and did not, and would not rule out future fair increases, I think tells you how airlines are thinking about this.
They have already raised fares where they can and they will continue to do so.
So the fares are going up, and like you said, they can't make all of that, uh, you know, 60% back all, all at once, right? They're not just gonna raise fares 60%. What else would they do? What else have airlines done in the past to nibble around the edges to make up some of that money?
I mean, I guarantee you, in every airline boardroom and executive meeting right now, they are talking about what can we do with fees? How can we raise fees for things like seed assignments and baggage higher than what we're already charging in order to recoup more of these costs and, and make more revenue?
And they're probably talking about what new fees can we create to get more out of consumers because it's another way to. You know, pass on the cost of these fuel price increases. It's also, in some ways, an even more effective way to do it, because when airlines charge a fair, every single time you and I pay $250 for, you know, a round trip fair to Chicago, or wherever the federal government is collecting taxes on that, it's like 7.5% or something like that, but it's significant.
But when they charge a fee. They don't have to collect those taxes. So airlines pocket every dollar of that fee. So, you know, in some ways a $19 seed assignment fee is more effective for the airlines than even like a 25% fair or a $25 fair increase. So I. Shudder at the thought of what horrific fees.
Airlines are scheming up as we're talking right now, and I would not shock me if we see something new and certainly it increases to existing fees within a matter of months.
Have you seen the movie Soul Plane?
I have not
they, one of the bits in Soul Plane is you have to put a quarter into the overhead bin in order to get it to open like a locker.
I'm just thinking, what else could they possibly charge us for on board?
Don't give 'em ideas. Gunner, come on. Maybe they've probably all watched Soul Plane. No, I mean there is a historical parallel for this, which is that. You know, we're, we are now so accustomed to paying bag fees, but bag fees came out in 2008 when jet fuel prices soared to basically the level that they're out now, in fact, a little bit lower than what they're out now.
And the airlines figured out a way to pass on some of these costs and get more money out of consumers. And that really, you know, in, in many ways changed the game for airlines and how they've. Think about getting more money out of people. So again, I mean, whether it's bag fees, seed assignments, some new horrific thing that you and I couldn't even fathom, but we'll soon have to come to grips with.
It's, I think it's on the way
we're watching, uh, we'll definitely be watching our, our flight deal analysts are looking into airfare all the time. And if there's a new fee that's. Popping up, uh, in your airfares, we're gonna catch it and we'll let you know. Um, I wonder who the first mover will be in something like this.
You know, which airline will, will be the first through the glass here to introduce some new kind of fee. I really hope that it doesn't happen. Um, but there's definitely a possibility that it does. So let's give people kind of an action plan, a toolbox here. Uh. Tell me about what you're doing to protect yourself now that you think that fares are going up, now that we know that some fares are going up and that they might go up again.
What are you doing?
I mean, the biggest thing is, um, you know, any flights for upcoming travel for spring and summer that I hadn't already booked, many of which I booked a couple of weeks ago when, you know, jet fuel prices started increasing. I am, I'm booking now. I, I have booked, I have booked everything for upcoming trips because while airfare is unpredictable and there will be, you know, prices that go down, they are far more likely to go up.
Right now as we're talking, we don't know what's gonna happen with jet fuel and maybe there's a resolution in the Middle East and, you know, the strait of horror moves opens back up and, you know, all of you know, this doubling of jet fuel prices eases off. I don't know, but that doesn't seem like a smart bet right now.
So, at a minimum. Booking sooner rather than later. Especially for travel over the coming, let's just call it four to six months, seems like one of the best bets you can make. And two, you know, following the advice that we always give, which is. Book your flights flexibly. If you're booking just a, the cheapest cash fare that you can find, book it in main cabin economy because then if prices do in fact decrease a couple of months later, even weeks later, then you can rebook that pocket the difference as a voucher and put it towards a future trip.
That's not the flexibility that you get with basic economy.
Definitely, I think on your first point, the book things right now, uh, rally your group chat, uh, talk to your family about Thanksgiving. Uh, I know that these things seem extremely far off, but you know, I, I rallied, uh, my, my family group chat about our Thanksgiving flights already.
I said we, we gotta get going on this Faires are gonna go up the points and miles of availability is there right now. So let's, let's go. We gotta start moving on this. Uh, if you know you have like a. Friend trip coming up or just a, you know, you know, you have a trip on the horizon in 2026, you should be moving on it already.
So get organized and, and start booking. 'cause I, I think the likelihood that fares are going to drop again in the near future is pretty low.
Well, and that's what we see with airlines all the time. They add fuel surcharges or they increase fares, citing the fuel. Price of jet fuel. And then when the price of jet fuel decreases, fares don't drop
right
to to the prices that they were at before.
They might drop over time. But this is, this is what airlines do. You know, in some ways it's, it's almost less about, uh. Recouping the cost of what they're paying at the so-called pump, and more about capitalizing on the expectation that things are going to get pricier as a result of these, of what people are seeing at gas stations, what people are seeing in the headlines about the price of oil, and saying, you know what?
I bet we can get an extra $25 out of people. I bet the willingness to pay is higher than it was before. To your point, I mean, beyond just booking flexibly and booking a main cabin economy ticket or higher, this is the time to use your miles for a couple of reasons. Maybe most importantly, it is even more flexible than booking a main cabinet in the economy.
Fair and rebooking if prices drop, because you know, if you're thinking about a trip. And you're not sure, but you know the price could be right. Book it now with your miles, because worst case scenario, you decide you can't take that trip, you cancel it, you get your miles back for free. All of the major US airlines have free cancellation, um, including Delta.
So long as you don't book a basic economy a war ticket, Delta is still the only major US airline that sell. Um, basic economy awards, I think JetBlue maybe does as well. But as long as you avoid those two, uh, basic economy on those two, using US airline miles is the best way to lock something in, even if you're not sure you're gonna take it.
So my my in-laws said over the weekend, Hey, we want to go to Hawaii next winter. We looked up Delta fairs from Minneapolis to Kauai. Booked it within about 30 minutes, got a pretty solid deal. And now they've got, you know, at this point, 10 months basically to figure out, are we actually gonna take this trip?
But they've locked in at a decent rate and they can cancel it if they need to and get all of those miles back.
Right. And if the price goes down, they can rebook and get some miles refunded too. I, I've been more and more looking at points and miles as what I use instead of travel insurance. I get the travel insurance question all the time.
I'm sure you do too. Should I buy a travel insurance policy? And my answer is I typically don't. I just use points and miles. That's the best way to protect yourself in situations like this. So even if you overpay a tiny bit. Points and miles right now, you are protected for when that airfare, when that MSP to Kauai airfare goes up to 800 bucks.
Round trip. Now your parents are laughing, so this is the way right now that you should be thinking about this is use that stash that you have or. If you don't have a stash of miles, like you said, book a, a refundable or just even main cabin fare, even if you have to overpay a little bit, you're gonna protect yourself.
'cause you could always rebook if the price goes down. Anything else, uh, that you're doing to protect yourself right now? Or should we tell some people where to look?
I mean, just to hammer once more on, on miles. It is the best way to get outsized value for your miles. We always say the only like capital T true guidance we can give about.
How people should redeem their miles is for a trip you otherwise couldn't afford.
Yep.
There's a lot of trips right now that are looking more unaffordable than they were just a month or so ago. So you know whether it's using your Delta sky Miles to book that trip, or maybe it's using Air France, KLM, flying blue miles to book that same Delta flight for even less.
You know, you gotta find the award availability, but you can. Book it for, you know, a much lower rate than what Delta is charging, even as Delta fairs have started to increase. And you know, even with some of these foreign airline program workarounds, many of them, at least the ones that we tend to talk about the most, have very reasonable cancellation fees.
So you can get even more value out of your transferable credit card points, lock a trip in at an even lower rate, and then if it doesn't pan out or you find a better deal later on, you cancel. Pay, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 to $75 or so to get your miles back and then book a different trip.
Yep. It's a strategy we both use all the time. I wanna give people a quick sense on where to look for deals. Um, my number one with the bullet was. Wherever your points and miles can take you. We've covered that thoroughly. I think number two, if you are looking for kind of a, a good deal would be just to use Google Flights Explorer, which we've also beaten into the ground on this program.
But go to Google Flights, type in your home airport in the departure city, leave the destination blank, and then type in your desired dates or even just keep it open-ended like a month or something like that, and just see where the lowest fares are because they are still out there. And number three, my guess is what that Google Flights Explorer will show you.
That the best fares are still going to be found where there's competition. Uh, the rising price of oil will never compete with another airline's low fare, um, you know, aim for routes and destinations where you know that more than one airline are flying. I know that's hard in, uh, hub captive places like a Charlotte or a Salt Lake or even a Minneapolis here or in Atlanta, but you know, the airlines are gonna raise.
Rates, they're gonna raise fares to offset fuel rates, but those fares will come down if Southwest is offering a hundred dollars less, right? That's the key to all of this, is that competition is still king in this industry. No matter how high oil prices get, look at a route where there's competition. And luckily, you know, a lot of these low cost carriers that are providing this competition are flying to places you want to go.
Uh, they're flying to Orlando and Phoenix and Mexico and, um, in general, you know, look at other places around the, like Northern Europe, uh, you have Iceland Air and SAS who are always gonna keep fares low and that's gonna make the majors compete with them. That's always a tried and true place to find a cheap flight.
You know, look at a place like Chicago where there are three major. US airlines competing for every single dollar, like fighting like cats and dogs right now to make sure that they're the one that carries you there. Um, and then, you know, the heavy hitter, Mexico, Hawaii, the places where every airline flies because there's just endless demand there.
That's where you're gonna see the best competition and probably. The lowest fares. Anything I missed?
I mean, I, I also, I think Mexico is maybe the biggest one right now where we have continued to see not just cheap cash fairs, but especially cheap award deals on the major airlines. The other kind of bigger picture trend is just all of those airline routes that are clearly struggling, especially new airline routes where airlines are still trying to fill seats where the demand for flights is not as high as the supply because it's still pretty fresh.
So, you know, just today we sent, um. You know, some amazingly cheap 25,000 skymile round trip fairs from across the United States to Taipei because Delta launched this route a couple years ago with four airlines flying nonstop daily or more from Seattle to Taipei, and they need to fill seats. They are losing money on that route.
It would shock me if we don't continue to see. Some great even business class fairs, um, you know, bookable with miles to Brisbane in Australia. 'cause many of the major US airlines have added nonstop service there within the last two years, and they're struggling to fill seats. So that's another one that I think we're gonna be keeping a close eye on.
I mean, the, the biggest thing is I think now more than ever. Follow the deal. You know, whether that's, you know, you're a thrifty Traveler Premium subscriber, you're just watching what we're posting about on social media watching us, unfortunately, talk about where these deals are. There's a lot of other great services and tools out there that can help you find the deal.
But if you start with the mindset that. Travel might be a little bit more expensive this year. Maybe into next, maybe beyond, we just don't know. But going into your travel planning process, starting with whatever deal you can find, however you find it, it hits your inbox. You see it mentioned somewhere on the internet.
And building out a trip from there, rather than trying to square peg, round hole a trip to Italy and Rome and Florence in June of 2026, because that's what you talked about before. You might be able to find a decent deal, but that's not a great starting point to start from in order to save on travel, especially this year.
Given what we've, what we're talking about.
Yeah. A ton of good advice there. I, I hope, uh, you all take our advice, start rounding up your trips for the rest of this year right now. Uh, I would urge everybody to get moving. There's a lot of uncertainty out there. I can't promise you that fares are gonna continue to go up, but it doesn't look good, right?
Yeah. I mean, I would much rather people lock in great trips at. Prices that they can at least stomach right now, then wait another two weeks, or four weeks or four months to book something and see something atrocious. The the, the risk is just higher, maybe higher than it's been in as long as we can remember.
I think the best, smartest thing you can do is get moving ASAP.
All right. Let's continue to help out our listeners. Um, first I want to give a quick shout out to everybody who sent us in. Welcome back video. Those were really awesome. After I got back from my vacation, I went to Hawaii. Did I mention I spent two weeks in Hawaii?
Should we talk about it for, uh, 15 to 30 minutes?
No. No. It's not worth it. It rained. Um, those, all those videos you all sent in the last two weeks were amazing. I can't wait to showcase them on upcoming shows. Send yours to thrifty traveler.com/voicemail if you wanna get in on the show. Okay. Uh, first I wanna shout out a listener who I met, uh, on, uh, Hawaiian Airlines.
Flight between Honolulu and Kauai. Ben stopped me in the aisle. I was walking down the aisle. This travel day was horrendous. I was, I, I was in hell. I was not feeling good about myself. I was lugging so much bad. I packed for this trip. Like such a donkey, Kyle. I, I really made a lot of mistakes, a lot of self-inflicted wounds on this flight.
Uh, anyway. Having just a terrible travel day. I'm lugging everything onto the plane during pre-boarding where they're letting the, the sad families with infants board the plane early and the guy behind me goes. Is your name, gunner and I, I look back and I see this guy, super handsome dude with a beautiful family, like beautiful wife, little kid, like the cutest family you've ever seen.
And my, my super, super disheveled family lugging all of our stuff down the aisle. I snapped my head back.
Sorry, Megan
looking like a gremlin. I'm like, what? And this guy's like, Hey, are you Gunner? I listened to your podcast. It's nice to meet you, Ben. Like the nicest dude ever with the most beautiful family.
Also flying and. Making me look like, uh, an amateur traveler on this flight. They were all, everything was perfect. Like their carry-ons were all in exact space. I was just lugging everything over my shoulders. Ben, the pro traveler, uh, calling me out for my travel show. So, Ben and Kauai, I hope you had a really good time in Kauai.
Right after we landed in Kauai, the weather got really good, so I'm sure Ben and his family had an awesome time. He also hit me with a, I'm surprised you weren't sitting up front, so. Now that my wife was all really impressed 'cause I got called out in the wild, Ben. She's like, yeah, why aren't we sitting up front?
Dammit. Ben.
Come on. Ben. Uh, Ben, it was nice to meet you. Thanks for shouting me out and making me feel cool in that moment. Um, we do have a listener question, Kyle. Uh. The announcement of our live show has been met with a ton of enthusiasm, June 12th here in Minneapolis. If you missed it, uh, we're so grateful for the response we've gotten so far.
Tickets are selling quickly already, which is really cool to see. But we had one person write us who wasn't quite sold yet. This was Brenda. Brenda wrote us, and she said, so exciting that you guys are allowing us mere mortals the opportunity to see y'all in person. But why in the world would we want to visit Minneapolis?
Give me a little incentive. I've always wanted to visit Paisley Park, but other than that, I have no idea what there would be to see and do we need some reasons to spend our hard earned points and hotels on hotels and flights? Your friend in travel, Brenda? Alright, Kyle, what is your pitch for visiting Minneapolis in June?
We know it's a great place to live and work. We do. Uh, why should somebody visit us though?
Uh, 'cause we love mortals. You know, we would love to see as many mortals as possible. I, I love Minneapolis in June and July and August. I think every Minnesotan says that because we're also sick of winter, but it's just such a great place to be.
I mean, we typically don't even travel through the summer, which I think most, most Minnesotans can relate to because it's just such a great time to visit. This city, this area of, of the country. Um, I mean, I think Minneapolis's dining is about as good as it gets for a city of this size. It really, you know, out kicks it, its coverage.
Some of my favorite places in the city, Sanju San in the North Loop, is one of my favorite restaurants. Not just in the city, but in the world. Um, maybe my favorite place in the city beyond the Parkway where we're, you know, hosting this live podcast is Bulls Horn, uh, which is, you know, maybe. Two miles away.
Uh, amazing dive bar. Probably some of the best burgers in town, just down the street from that. A place called Ven Brewing Amazing Brewery, some great beers. I mean, Minneapolis's Brewery scene is also like per capita, one of, if not the best in the country. There are so many amazing breweries like Black Stack Dual Citizen.
Um. Sociable cider works in Northeast Minneapolis is another great spot. If you wanna spend some more time outside, if you're spending a long weekend here. And then finally get outta Minneapolis. Go visit some of the lakes. Uh, we've got more than 11,000 of them. It is not the land of 10,000 lakes, the best of which is Lake Superior.
Um, I grew up on the tip of Lake Superior in Duluth. That's a great spot to go. It's only. Two-ish hour drive, maybe even less if you've got a heavy foot. Um, but if you go beyond that, up the North Shore following the, you know, the northwest coast of Lake Superior, up the North Shore to Lutin and even Grand Marai, it's just like one of the most special areas in the state to me, but also in the country, period.
There's a lot here for people.
I love all those wrecks. I don't know if how much I, how much better I could do. Our lakes here in the city are really amazing. Our kinda chain of lakes area. It's just a amazing place to spend some time. We love doing that. Um, also, Kyle, this is important. The day after our live show, the twins play at home.
Going to Target field is always a fun time. They're playing the Cardinals on Saturday the 13th. It's $2 beer night that night, Kyle. So our listeners a very special, special twins game for you. I'm sure they did it because of our live show. They knew all the out of towners would be here. They must have, yeah, it's $2 beer night.
So they
knew you were going and that you just downed four or five, uh, guava mimosas on your flight.
Uh, carving out a little reputation for myself. They're
budgeting fif $16 from Gunnar Olsen on, uh, Saturday, June 13th.
Yeah. They're not making money off me in that game. Um. If you wanna buy tickets to the live show, if you've been convinced by our, our little mini travel log here, uh, the show is on June 12th.
Tickets are on sale now. Go to thrifty traveler.com/live. We'll also link that in the show notes. It should be a really fun night. And if you have, uh, a question you'd like us to answer on the podcast, or if you have any feedback, hit us up at podcast@thriftytraveler.com. We might feature your question on next week's show.
To close the show as always, we have on the spot and it's your turn to put me on the spot. What do you have?
Well, I was gonna ask if you've ever been cut off on a flight, but I think we heard that the answer is a soft yes.
I don't think I was cut off. I think we will talk, we'll talk to the guy. It
was, it was a strategic move.
Hey, maybe you really don't think, Hey, maybe a coffee next was being cut off.
No, no. We'll see, uh, I'm not ready for that kind of self-reflection yet.
Okay. Uh, the real on the spot question for you is. What's the most you've ever paid for a flight, and what would you do differently knowing what you know now?
Huh? The most I've ever paid for a flight. Um, when I was, it was right after college and my now wife was studying abroad in, uh. In Italy and I flew into Milan and out of Zurich on some Frank and fair. I booked on Kayak before I had any strategies for booking flights at all. And uh, I think it, I think it was something like $850 round trip and I think that was the most I've ever paid for a flight.
I've never paid more than a thousand dollars for a flight. I never will. That's like my hard line.
Mm-hmm.
Uh. So I think that was probably the most that I've ever paid, man. If I, if I could do that again, knowing what I know now, um, at the time I wasn't, uh, flush with points or miles or anything, but I at least could have been a little more strategic about how I went about booking that.
But I've also paid like I crazy amounts in points and miles for flights that where I just had no other option and that was, mm-hmm. Like I said, my insurance policy just to make sure I got somewhere. But I think that was the most expensive flight I've ever booked. Yeah, I, I learned a lot from it in that, you know, now I see the flight deals that we send and it's like $400 round trip to Zurich.
I'm like, Hmm, that would've been nice. Probably should have done that when I really needed to, back when I was working a local newspaper job and $800 was a fat percentage of my, my annual pay, so that was probably the most expensive one. Good answer.
You're smarter now,
baby.
It's a low bar, but you're smarter now.
Uh, getting better every day. Alright, thank you so much for listening to the Thrifty Traveler Podcast. Rate us five stars on your platform of choice and like, and subscribe to the show on YouTube so you can see that. Extra sunburn that I got that I mentioned in the intro. Uh, send this episode to someone you know who needs a vacation.
If you had feedback for us, send me a note at podcast@thriftytraveler.com. I'd love to hear from you there. Kyle, tell us about the team.
This episode was produced by your favorite host who let the record show was absolutely cut off by a Hawaiian Airlines flight attendant. It doesn't matter what he says, Gunnar Olson.
It was produced and edited by Sylvia Thomas and edited by Kyle Thomas. Our theme music is by Benjamin Tissot. See you next week.
See ya.