Gunnar and Kyle dive deep into the tenuous state of travel demand (it's slowing down) and what it means for travelers on the hunt for a bargain (good things!) They also chat about a pair of spectacular deals that went out to Thrifty Traveler subscribers and wonder if Real ID enforcement is actually coming or not. Oh, and we officially have a listener of the week!
Gunnar and Kyle dive deep into the tenuous state of travel demand (it's slowing down) and what it means for travelers on the hunt for a bargain (good things!) They also chat about a pair of spectacular deals that went out to Thrifty Traveler subscribers and wonder if Real ID enforcement is actually coming or not. Oh, and we officially have a listener of the week!
(0:41) - Would you book a fare called “Ultrabasic?”
(3:08) - A Unicorn deal & a mistake fare … all in one week!
(8:05) - Real ID is coming…but actually for real this time?
(11:54) - Travel is slowing down…
(18:32) - A word from our sponsor: Us (and our flight deal service!)
(20:53) - Why this might be the best summer ever for flight deals
(24:35) - Flight prices are going down when they should be going up
(25:20) - Domestic flights under $100 RT
(27:20) - Delta shortens summer – August is fall now
(30:05) - Points & miles deals in business and first class, too
(33:10) - Gunnar loves “inappropriate fares”
(35:00) - Why you should be rooting for low-cost carriers
(37:35) - Listener Question: Tara wants to fly biz class to Kenya
(42:13) - Our first-ever Listener of the Week loves pool metaphors more than we do!
(44:10) - Gunnar puts Kyle on the spot about his least favorite destinations
Produced by Gunnar Olson & TBD
Edited by David Strutt
Show music: “All That” by Benjamin Tissot
Yo. Welcome to the show. I'm Gunnar Olson here with a guy who's primed and ready to make this our first ever podcast where you have to put the explicit tag on. Oh, we're doing it. We're really doing it this week.
We're doing it, Kyle Potter. It's time. No. I'm hoping that we don't have to, but some of these topics today, I'm I'm a little worked up about. And it's a little early in the morning for us, so we'll see what happens here.
But I'll start with one that might work myself into a tizzy. But I need to find something out from you. Would you ever book a fare called Ultra Basic? Absolutely not. What are airlines doing?
It's just I mean, basic economy isn't bad enough. You need to put Ultra in front of it. What's next? Uber Basic? Yeah.
Horrible basic? It's honestly, it's so ridiculous. But just for context, last year, WestJet started selling these fares that they call ultra basic, and they come with nothing. Just, basically, a guaranteed spot on the plane. It's not just a basic economy fare, like, no seat assignment, no checked bags, no free changes.
They also don't allow changes at all. And here's the kicker, not even a carry on bag. So this fare essentially is, as bare bones as it gets. You really hate to see it. I find these fares pretty gross.
Can we use the lavatory? Or have we tested do we need to do a review to figure out if they'll allow you to use a lavatory on an ultra basic fare? Yeah. You have to bring your credit card and tap it to get entrance into the lavatory at the back of the plane. But and the worst part about this is I've we've seen WestJet selling these before, on some of their sun routes where they have to compete with, like, Flare, the low cost carrier in Canada to bring people to Right.
Punta Cana or or Cabo. But we're seeing them now on the transborder flights. So we saw a few, between the new route in Calgary and Minneapolis this week. We saw them between Vancouver and Atlanta, And they're selling them in the 1 hundreds round trip. So it's pretty eye catching, and and we jumped on them right away and then started digging into what people actually get.
And, they're just they're too nasty. They're too gross. We wouldn't even send them to our, premium subscribers because, this fare just comes with nothing, and I really hate this. If you can count on the airlines for anything, it's to make things worse. WestJet is taking the lead in the race to the bottom right now.
Not good. Let's go on with the rest of the show though and see what else we hate today. But we're gonna start with something great that we love. We have a mistake fair and a unicorn alert in the same week. That's gonna be our something hot this week.
We are also still somehow talking about Real ID this week on the show. And in our featured segment called The Extra Mile, we're gonna chat about the state of travel demand in general and airfare. And, we're gonna tell you why we think it might be the best summer ever for your travels because of it. Don't hate that. No.
We don't. Welcome back to the Thrifty Traveler podcast. Alright. Let's jump into something hot and something cold this week where we look at the good and the bad news out there for travelers. And we're gonna start with something scorching hot, Kyle.
Tuesday morning, last Tuesday, our award analysts found one of the deals of the year, in my opinion, Cathay Pacific first class availability from JFK to Southeast Asia, New Zealand, and even Australia From a 40,000 Cathay Pacific Asia miles each way, which definitely sounds like a lot, but for what you're getting, it's it's pretty spectacular. We saw Auckland, Bali, Bangkok, Brisbane, Ho Chi Minh City, Melbourne, Phuket, Singapore, and more. It was a a crazy list of destinations flying one of the comfiest seats in the sky. What stuck out to you about this deal, Kyle? Well, two things.
First and foremost, Cathay Pacific first class is, generally speaking, very hard to book. It's gotten darn near impossible over the last couple of years. So just the fact that this popped up at all is is noteworthy. The fact that it's came from New York City, JFK, I mean, we haven't seen award availability to book Cathay Pacific first class all the way from New York City. I mean, that's like a seventeen hour flight.
Very hard to book. So the fact that that popped up was extraordinary. Something we haven't seen literally in years. But the best wrinkle about this deal and and, you know, we really drill down into it is, you know, it starts from New York City flying first class. But if you add a segment in business class flying, you know, onward from Hong Kong to Bali to Bangkok to Brisbane to Ho Chi Minh.
It actually got cheaper than the nonstop just in first class from New York City. So this is, you know, what we call a mixed cabin, segment where just by adding in even a longer segment that should, in theory, increase the cost of this award, it actually got cheaper by, you know, in some cases, as much as nearly, 20,000 points each way. So while a 40,000 points or more is is pretty darn steep, this is as good as it gets to fly one of the best first class cabins in the sky if that's on your list and and a pretty incredible deal all around. Yeah. I think it was a pretty much a no brainer for us to put the unicorn alert designation on this one.
It was, just such a spectacular deal and the kind of deal that I wish I had been ready to book. But alas, a lot of, premium subscribers got to do it instead. So but our week wasn't over because then on Friday, our team dug up a good old fashioned mistake fair, Kyle. Lufthansa business class to Europe starting at just a thousand dollars round trip. Pretty ridiculous.
Flying from Philly, Miami, Dallas, and Charlotte to cities all over Europe like Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Milan, Rome, Stockholm, and more. The highest fare on the deal was, right around $1,480, and the lowest one was right around a thousand dollars. And the crazy part is it included August, on many routes. August had the best availability in some cases, meaning that these fares were probably cheaper than economy. Some people on those planes were paying more for their economy seat than our subscribers will for business class.
But was this a true mistake fair? What happened here? I don't know. Let's put it this way. We're now, you know, five days past this, and as we're talking about this fair, it it hasn't been canceled.
So that's a great sign. But we also dug into the mechanics of of how this how this fair was composed. So, you know, while you see a great price and it's a thousand dollars, it there's a lot more to airfare than just one round figure. There's fees and surcharges and taxes and then the actual airfare itself, and it all kind of rounds in together into the big price or in this case, the not so big price that you ultimately see. There was nothing in there when we actually dug into the details that screams, oh, somebody screwed something up here.
You know, there are some cases where clearly the airline maybe inadvertently, in some cases purposely, left out a fuel surcharge, and that results in the fare being 812 hundred, even $2,000 cheaper than it normally would be. And there was none of that in this case. So, you know, you put these two together, this mistake fair, maybe not mistake fair, you know, the unicorn fair flying Cathay Pacific first class earlier last week. And it just feels like something has shifted, and I that's why we're gonna talk about exactly what is happening, what is going on in the world of travel, that travel demand is apparently slipping, and what that means for people. And because, you know, the long and short of it is if you wanna stop the podcast here, which please don't, but okay.
This is an opportunity. You know, the fact that we're seeing, you know, Cathay Pacific first class for the first time in years, from New York City. The fact that airlines may have intentionally sold a round trip business class fare to Europe, including in the summer for just over a thousand dollars round trip. That says something about where we're at right now. Yeah.
It's really interesting. I I can't wait to dig into it, a little later in the pod. But first, we have to pivot to something cold and something that is ice ice cold right now, Kyle. A short twenty three and a half years after 09/11, TSA real ID is going into effect on May 7. That means, travelers are gonna have to have a real ID or their passport to get through airport security.
And, they really took their time with this two decade rollout. So we've got all the details buttoned up. Right, Kyle? We know exactly what to expect, May 7? It's gonna be a mess, May 7.
But let's stress, After being, you know, the butt of every single joke for the last, basically, two decades of delay after delay, extension after extension, you know, we're now less than a month out from when this goes live. And by all accounts, this is actually happening. I'm you know, we're not making things up anymore. We're not waiting for that eleventh hour extension. Is it possible?
Sure. It is. But this is the closest that we've ever been to Real ID actually taking effect for domestic flights where you're going to need one of these compliant, you know, driver's licenses, a passport, global entry card, which is what I plan to use. That's an approved alternative. This is gonna happen and people need to start preparing for it.
And in many cases, it is way too late to get a new real ID. So if you have a passport that you're willing to travel with on your next domestic flight or you have a global entry card, throw it in your wallet now, throw it in your backpack because by the looks of it, you're going to need it. Yeah. I think, I'm hoping that this doesn't come back to bite me and we're not doing this segment again in April 2026. It would be so classic, though.
We're just tempting fate at this point. Yeah. But I just think the messaging around this, because they've delayed it so many times that people just aren't taking this seriously. And I think once we see some reports of people being denied boarding or being, you know, screened long, long extra than they should be, you know, people getting hung up at TSA checkpoints because they don't have a Real ID. I think once we once people see that these issues are happening, then maybe they'll finally convert over to Real ID themselves.
I'm on my second Real ID now, so I'm, Uber compliant here and nearing my third, I think. So, but that's something cold this week. Anything else on Real ID? You know, it's just hard to imagine how this could have been bungled more where, you know, they get to a deadline and then they realize that there's not enough people that have a real ID and so they extend it. But then that removes the urgency.
And then, you know, the American traveling public as a whole, I think, rightfully, has just kinda said, like, this is never gonna happen. And so there's it's just been this vicious cycle of there not being enough urgency to convince people that this is happening, and they need to get ready for it. And so it's you know, to me, part of the problem has less to do with, you know, how many people have a real ID or an alternative ready to travel. It's that people aren't gonna be conditioned to have them have those IDs with them the next time they go to the airport starting May 7 and onwards. You know, to say nothing of the fact that on the one hand, the TSA has said, you need an approved ID or you will not be allowed into the airport.
But then in the very next sentence, they say, travelers without an approved ID may face delays or additional screening. It's like, which one is it? Let's level with the American public here. I I understand what they're trying to do and trying to make sure that they don't have to turn away people, but still kind of create that additional sense of urgency and importance that this is real, that people need a real ID. But, man, this two decade long saga, at a certain point, it just needs to be over, right?
Yeah. It has to be over. This is, it's getting kinda ridiculous and, frankly, I'm tired of talking about it. So let's, move on to our extra mile topic this week, where we dig into something a little extra into the world of travel. And this one's a big one.
We we touched on it a little bit in something hot, but the state of travel demand, basically, travel demand is way down right now. And the airlines have taken notice. They start they're they they appear to be freaking out a little bit about travel demand, and we saw this start to manifest itself in some really low fares over the last few months, that we've been sending to our premium members. And then we got some data that airfare fell, in February '4 percent. And then in March, it fell another 5.3%.
The biggest two month drop that we've seen in a long time. And, basically, the airlines are starting to react to this demand environment. What are you seeing? I think it's time to pull out my favorite meme, my favorite GIF of all time, which is, it's a husky in a spacesuit floating in outer space just kind of flapping his drummies. And it just says, I have no idea what I'm doing because I feel like this is where everybody is at right now.
Us in this room trying to read the tea leaves, airlines trying to feel their way through this moment of uncertainty and and travel demand slipping. It's a weird point. And it's a weird point in large part because, you know, we've really had since the depths of the pandemic in the spring of twenty twenty when everything ground to a screeching halt. Ever since then, it has been five plus years of just uninterrupted travel growth. Every single year was bigger than the last, in terms of travel demand, especially here in The United States, but across the globe as well.
I mean, here in The US, Ten all 10 of the 10 busiest travel days in our country's history fell within 2024. Travel demand would just couldn't stop, but, I mean, this is the thing, and this is what we've talked about, you know, for years now. This couldn't last forever. Travel demand wasn't just going to be a slow but steady line up forever. At some point, things were going to turn.
And what has become clear is that, you know, at some point in early twenty twenty five, we hit a turning point where, you know, that steady growth in travel demand started to turn the other way. And that's what we're dealing with now, and that's what we're trying to figure out what is going on, how airlines are going to cope with this, but most importantly, what that's going to mean for travelers. Because while, you know, there is a lot of anxiety out there about the economy and especially after what's been going on with the stock market, people are, you know, rightfully very concerned. But this isn't going to be necessarily bad news for travelers. On the contrary, you know, I think it's going to lead to some more opportunities.
Yeah. There's definitely gonna be opportunities out there. I do wonder, and this is based, in absolutely nothing. So solid podcasting here. You heard it here first.
But I think after the pandemic, we saw a lot of people, traveling, what I would call aggressively, people who were really pent up. Right? We were all stuck, and, we wanted to get back out there. And I you know, the phrase revenge travel, was something that was coined then. Right.
Aggressive and revenge travel. It really makes travel seem really high stakes. You're leaning into the hate today, Gunnar. Yeah. It's the haters episode of the Thrifty Traveler podcast.
But I think people probably got those huge trips that they've been waiting on forever out of their system, or maybe they're just out of points and miles that they accrued over the course of three years, and they spent them all on on these big massive trips. So whether it's a Europe trip or an Asia trip, you know, everybody you know went to Tokyo last year and, you know, after big trips like that, maybe people are pumping the brakes a little bit. But like you said, there's just so much opportunity out there right now if if you do still have some points and miles or even some cash ready to travel. But, yeah, what else are you seeing out there in terms of, how the numbers are showing what's going on here? You know, it's all over the place.
You know, there have been warning signs that have been growing a little bit louder and louder over the course of the last, I would say, month or so. So, you know, in early March, a handful of airlines started saying, you know, things have really started to slow down, and there was a question of whether that was, you know, holding up your hands, the economy, what's going on here, versus, you know, some lingering concerns about the safety of travel, you know, after, you know, not one but two crashes, one of which horrific fatal incident, just outside of Washington DC. And then, soon after that, you know, the crash of a Delta Regional jet in Toronto. And, you know, whether or not that's a contributing factor here, I I don't think anybody knows for sure. But what I think we do know is that this is bigger than just, you know, the recent wobbles on the stock market, that this is bigger certainly than just concerns about, you know, aviation safety, that that something has really turned, that, you know, airlines in Canada and online travel agencies have said that bookings from Canada to The United States in particular are down.
There's a handful of different data points that show that some really severe, others a little bit more moderate, but still the trend line is pretty clear. You see it, you know, Virgin Atlantic came out a while ago and said that, you know, bookings between The US and Europe are down overall, trending the wrong way. And yet in the next breath, you know, a handful of days later, Delta said Transatlantic bookings are outpacing 2024, and that, you know, spring and summer and even into fall is shaping up to be really huge. So, again, you just come back to, I have no idea what I'm doing. I don't know.
I don't think anybody knows, and that's the thing is that we're just at this massive point of uncertainty of of exactly what's going on, and how long this is going to go on. But, you know, we've seen most importantly predating all of this stuff before people start traveling less, before airlines warn investors that things aren't panning out exactly the way that they thought they would this year. They start to try to fill seats that are suddenly going out empty, which means that they start slashing prices. And that's what we have been seeing for months and which is why I think we're both, you know, on the one hand, cautious and definitely uncertain about where this is heading or how long this is going to last. But on the other hand, feeling pretty hopeful that this is gonna result in some of the deals that travelers really love.
But before we get into that, let's take a quick break. It's time for a word from our sponsors, and that sponsor is us. We've said it before, but I wanna say it again. If you want flight deals, you need Thrifty Traveler Premium. 247365, our team of awesome flight deal analysts is digging up the cheapest fares and hard to book points deals, sending them to members inboxes daily.
And as you've heard, those deals are only getting better. Gunnar, what's your favorite? My favorite right now, I'm kind of obsessed with this, New York City to Milan Emirates business class deal. I I've talked about it, I think, three out of our six episodes so far. But I just I can't get over the value here.
A 8,000 Emirates skywards miles round trip, from New York City to Milan. That's business class. You could also get this in first class. And this availability that we sent, just yesterday included the Olympics, in Milan. So Amazing.
Ridiculous deal. I'm kinda desperate to book it myself, but I'm gonna have to run home and and ask the wife about that one. But we've seen a ton of incredible stuff. The Iceland, peak summer under $5.99 round trip. A lot of Iceland air on there, but a lot of Delta on there.
Delta is getting really competitive on those routes and matching some of those. We saw some Australia business class availability over the last week. Business class on Qantas DFW to Australia for a 27,000 miles each way. Pretty spectacular there. And then, you know, besides obviously the mistake fair and the unicorns, we're seeing stuff like Costa Rica and Belize under 399 round trip.
We're seeing, New York City to Santorini for $583 round trip, and a Delta One suites deal to Seoul from a 10,000 SkyMiles each way, which is pretty spectacular. When you can book SkyMiles deals one way, we always make sure that we can send them to our members. So lots to love in your inbox this week for premium members. You can get all that more. Sign up today at thriftytraveler.com/premium.
As a special treat, our podcast listeners can use the promo code TTPOD for $20 off your first year of flight deal alerts. That's thriftytraveler.com/premium. Enter the promo code t t pod, five letters, all one word for $20 off your first year. Alright. So let's get to the fun part here about this travel demand discussion.
We're done hating for today. We're done hating well, possibly done hating. We'll see. But for this second part of the extra mile, I I just wanted to talk a little bit about, what we're seeing in airfare and the the opportunity that's coming out of this. You know we always harp on it on on our website and whenever we discuss airfare, but all this stuff is about supply and demand.
It's extremely simple. You don't need me to explain to you what supply and demand is, but we've seen for a few years now, that airlines have been throwing capacity, at travel. So they're putting as many airplane seats in front of travelers as possible so they can be the ones to take them to where they wanna go. And what that's led to is, either sometimes it's matching demand and keeping up with it and the airlines are turning great profits like they did a few summers ago, or it's last summer where they there was way too much supply. There was way too much overcapacity, and the demand wasn't there and we saw some some really incredible deals.
What we're seeing again this year is that, they got the capacity wrong a little bit here. And and right now, airlines are cutting capacity to make up for this mistake. Right? They just they overshot. But these cuts, we're seeing them starting late this fall and into 2026.
The cuts have not started yet, and that's why we're seeing really good fares right now and really good award availability through summer, this year. So what else are you seeing out there? Yeah. I mean, I think the it's very clear that I don't know. It's so much that airlines got it wrong.
It's that the demand environment changed, and kinda caught airlines off guard. And so airlines that were banking on the biggest summer of travel yet, that 2025 was going to outpace 2024, All of a sudden, there are these warning signs that, you know, this year isn't gonna pan out the way that airlines thought they would, and and they need to respond by reducing supply. If demand isn't coming in high enough to fill planes at high fares, they are going to cut, and that's what they've said they're going to do. You know, Delta is the first major US airline to come out with earnings. And they've already said that, you know, starting basically mid August and onward, they're going to start cutting flights.
We don't know exactly where. We don't know exactly how many flights they might cut. But we do know that some cuts are coming. And I'm sure Delta is not going to be the last airline to do this. We're already seeing airlines across the board, especially internationally, start to tweak things a little bit to make sure that they aren't, you know, flying too many seats in some of the markets that apparently are not as strong as airlines were banking on them being.
But, again, you know, like you said, these cuts aren't happening overnight. It's gonna take some time for the system to kind of readjust to the new demand environment. And by the way, this demand environment is going to keep changing because nobody knows how long this is going to go. Is this, you know, the start of a recession? We don't know.
Are we already in a recession? I certainly don't know. I don't know anything about economics. But I do know that something is changing out there and that, you know, airlines are starting to respond, but they cannot respond fast enough to prevent what we love, what we're all about, which we certainly don't hate, which is great deal. So gonna walk through I mean, we've touched on a few of them already, but I just feel like there are so many examples that started cropping up.
You know, as early as, you know, late January, early February of flight deals that are close to, if not on par with some of the craziness we saw in the earliest early stages of the pandemic when travel demand started to disappear. Yeah. I'll touch on a few deals, but one interesting thing that we noted, on our website this week was that, usually, around this time of year, March, April, May, fares are the highest they are all year. Right before summer, the travel season usually demands a lot of money from people. If you wanna be traveling in those June, July months and that's kinda right when people start to look at booking those things.
So usually we see this big spike right in March and April for airfare for the whole year. And this year we saw a drop. It's gonna change the way that graph looks, and it's the only year besides 2020 where that graph just kinda got inverted. So we're seeing just a ton of opportunity. And I think a lot of the reason is, especially for US travel, is because these domestic flights are so cheap right now.
Right. We're seeing kinda this big resurgence of sub $100 domestic round trip flights. We love those flights. That's actually how I found Thrifty Traveler a long, long time ago was you guys were posting about $96 round trip flights to Denver and I thought there's no way I could go skiing for $96. And when I looked into it, it was true.
So that's what got me hooked on Thrifty Traveler way back. You spend $96 to fly to Denver and then paid $496 for a Lyft ticket? Yeah. And a $45 for chicken tendies at the mid lodge midday. Gunnar, we're here to help.
But yeah. So these domestic flights are definitely taking this average and dropping it way down. Right? And, the wherever you wanna go, whether it's down to Florida for one last sunny getaway or or out to the mountains or, anywhere just, your cousin's wedding in Kansas City. Everything is looking a lot cheaper right now, especially for these, spring and summer dates.
Let's let's pause and remind people that this is the trend. This does not mean that every single domestic flight you're gonna look at is gonna be dirt cheap. I think in particular, if you're looking within the next thirty days, airfare still tends to be pretty high across the board no matter where you're going. But, you know, the fact that average flight prices are dropping and it coincides with this overall trend, what what this means is that, you know, the flight deals, whether it's domestic and and some of the other regions we're gonna get into, the flight the great flight deals, the things that we really care about, are easier to find than they were even a couple of months ago. I mean, Peter Thornton on our team, said last week was probably the single best week of flight deals that he's seen in the three years and change that he's worked with us.
I mean, again, that says something about the environment we're in right now. Yeah. Peter is running out of emojis on the premium team right now. We're having trouble explaining to people the urgency and how good some of these deals are, but good problem to have. Another really interesting trend that that, we've been seeing for a while now and then, Delta came right out and said it.
But Kyle, you and I looked at each other funny when they said it, but, on their earnings call, Delta basically told everybody that August in their book is no longer summer. So, if your summer feels too short this year, call Ed Bastian. Bastian shortens summer. But basically they're seeing not they're just not seeing the demand there anymore. And the reason is, schools go back to school a lot earlier down south where a lot of Delta's customers are.
So they're kind of losing out on those last few weeks of August. Up here in the North, school goes back to school way too early, obviously, for most people. But, at least, you know, you get that last trip in mid August, that you can take for cheap. But right now, these flights to Europe in the 4 hundreds and 5 hundreds round trip in August are being priced like they're in the October, like they're in the middle of the school year. It’'s pretty crazy.
And on the one hand, you and I were both shocked when Glenn Hauenstein, Delta's president, said, quote, August is no longer a peak month for Delta's travel, and then explained that they would start kind of trimming flights from their schedule from mid August and onward. And that's crazy to hear because August is typically, you know well, it's the end of the peak summer travel. It's still pretty squarely peak summer when you can expect things are at their busiest, prices are at their highest on everything from flights to to hotels and, in some cases, meals, which you can end up getting charged more because you end up in the wrong place and it's too busy. But on the other hand, I think it clicked pretty soon after that's like, well, no. You know what?
The amount of flight deals that we've sent that a year ago, you know, traveling in any time before basically after Labor Day in early September would result in paying hundreds of dollars more. I mean, the volume of flight deals to Europe in particular where you can, you know, depart from The US, August 14, in some cases, even like August 7, and still get a huge bargain at some of the lowest prices that we see is unprecedented, I think. And most importantly, is an opportunity for families out there who are tethered to the school schedule to pull off a big summer trip, before getting the kids back to school and do it without breaking the bank. Yeah. If if you're looking to take one of those big summer trips to Europe, and you searched for, you know, July 12 through July 19 and you saw something that, was close to $2,000 round trip in economy, don't slam the laptop, don't give up, just take take a look at the August because you might be surprised at what you're seeing.
We definitely are. It's a trend that we love to see though because a summer trip to Europe, if you can pull it off, pretty spectacular that number. We're seeing it manifests in other ways though too. Obviously, when flights are going out empty, the airlines are releasing a lot of award space to help fill those seats, especially upfront. Usually business class seats are a little easier to book in the summer anyway because there are fewer business travelers that time of year.
We don't know exactly what the state of business travel demand is right now. The airlines seem a little worried about it, but, you know, this unicorn deal, the Cathay First Class deal from New York City is definitely a result of this travel demand environment. You'd have to think. Same thing with the Qantas business class stuff to Australia. It's absolutely a sign of the times and that something has truly shifted.
You know, the trend over the last two years has been really clear that as travel demand was so high and only kept growing, and that, you know, there are more people than ever that either have a ton of have a ton of money saved up and wanna book a business class fare for themselves or, you know, have gotten into the world of points and miles and can book these seats using their credit card points or airline miles. That those groups of people are bigger than ever, and airlines don't want to, you know, allow people to redeem miles if they don't have to. If they have a choice between letting somebody book for 85,000 points for a flight from Chicago to London or charging $3,000 for that same seat, they are gonna charge $3,000 and that is what they have been doing because the demand is there to support it. And what seems like it's shifted, is that it's kind of starting to flip on its head that, you know, as demand softens, as there are fewer people who are, you know, willing to pay those prices for those big trips or, you know, maybe people are just more prone to staying at home.
I don't know. Again, I have no idea what I'm doing. But when we see, you know, Cathay Pacific first class availability from New York City to Hong Kong for the first time in literally years, when we see Qantas business class for those long flights to Australia bookable from Dallas for the first time in at least a year, if not a little bit more, that says something about, you know, where travel demand is at and, therefore, where the opportunities lie for travelers because it's starting to feel like there are more of those opportunities than we've seen in at least a couple of years. Yeah. Absolutely.
I think if if I had one major takeaway from this whole discussion, that I'd want to share with our listeners and that we've been sharing with our Thrifty Traveler premium subscribers, it's that the getting is going to be really good in the short term, but we have to be booking now. I think, you know, we're looking at how the airlines are reacting to this and they're right sizing their operations. They're figuring all this stuff out. The more data they get, the more they're going to be able to charge appropriate fares for these flights that we wanna take. We love the inappropriate fares that are way too slow or way too low.
There's our poll quote. And basically, we're trying to get our travelers into those fares that are priced too low. And, right now over the next few months, we're gonna see so much of it and we're on the hunt for it every day. But, you know, whether it's these domestic flights that are under a hundred dollars under $200 round trip to all these places that you already wanna go or need to go, obviously, these Canada flight deals that we've seen lately have been pretty amazing and, I've I took one myself, but there's just such great opportunity to go to Banff, to go to Vancouver, to go up to Montreal or Toronto this year if Canada has been on your list. We already talked about this August kind of loophole.
If you wanna go to Europe, that's just an unbelievable opportunity, especially if you're dead set on paying cash and flying economy. That's absolutely where you should be looking. But where else should you look, Kyle? I mean, we've certainly seen a resurgence within the last few just weeks in, you know, cheap flights to Asia, including Japan, which, you know, we've touched on in previous episodes just how sky high travel demand is to Japan. And so the fact that we're now seeing fares in some cases, not just in the 7 hundreds, but in the 6 hundreds round trip from cities across the country, again, is, I think, pretty telling about how things are changing.
The amount of award space that we've seen on routes, again, that, you know, for years were very difficult, if not impossible, to book says something about what's happening and what kind of opportunity we're in. I do wanna say though, I am this this is an opportunity, but I think it really hinges on on two things that, it depends on how deep this goes, this economic uncertainty that we're all kinda feeling our way through right now. And, you know, if things really do fall a cliff fall off a cliff, which I wanna stress has not happened yet, this pales in comparison to what we saw in, you know, March and April of twenty twenty. But if it continues to decline or declines more precipitously, we're talking about much bigger changes in how airlines fly and what kind of capacity is out there and who's traveling in there for kind of what that does to the airfare pricing or the points market out there. And, you know, longer term, it kinda doesn't matter what happens with that because budget airlines like Spirit, Frontier, to a certain extent, even Southwest, are really, really struggling right now.
And particularly when you talk about the domestic market, but even, you know, flying down to, The Caribbean or Mexico or up to Canada. These airlines are really, really important for driving those domestic flight prices down. And if they continue to struggle and I don't see how all of them make their way out of this and still function as very healthy airlines because the fact of the matter is is basically none of them are right now. But if that continues, I think it spells some major trouble for what the domestic airfare environment looks like, through the end of this year and into 2026. Yeah.
The health of the budget airlines is so important, and I know I spent the first segment of this show dunking on WestJet, for offering a ultra low cost fare that I really hate. And I don't book those fares, and I know a lot of people out there are saying, who cares if Spirit or Frontier dies? Let them die. The health of these airlines is so important for the fares that you pay to fly American, Delta, and United. It's crucial.
They're driving the market in so many ways, and we need those airlines to exist so that we can pay reasonable fares for the airlines that we actually wanna fly. So never root for a budget airline to fail. And in fact, I'm really rooting for them all to succeed and hope that they can figure some things out because, when they're able to offer low fares against these, you know, airlines that we already wanna fly, it's always good news for us. The airlines want nothing more than to charge you more money. That is what airlines exist for is to make money.
There are most of them, you know, publicly traded for profit companies. They exist to make more money and reward their shareholders, which means that they want to charge higher fares. And having pressure from airlines like Spirit and Frontier and Sun Country and Southwest is what drives those prices down no matter what airline you're flying. Awesome. Let's talk about our listeners.
Our listener question of the week, we wanna help listener Tara z, who writes, I'm trying to redeem rewards points for business class tickets to Kenya. We're gonna exclude her exact dates, but let's just say they're in late November, early December. She says, we're flexible about the dates we travel in order to redeem and accomplish this. However, I'm having no luck finding anything that is going to work that doesn't include insane taxes, Emirates, or 700 k plus in points. Any suggestions?
Anything for Tara here, Kyle? I mean, Emirates is tough. That is a natural starting point, for anybody looking to get to, The Middle East or Africa. But anytime you have to go through Dubai, you're gonna get hit with some nasty, nasty taxes and fees. So definitely steer clear of that.
I the first thing that came to mind for me is, flying Ethiopian, which is, you know, Africa's 1 of, if not the largest airline in Africa. And they have a ton of flights, not just just to their hub in Addis Ababa, which put you pretty close to Kenya, but they also fly nonstop to Togo, in Lome and a handful of other destinations from, you know, airports across the country. And generally speaking, the award availability is pretty good. So if you focus less on getting straight to Kenya and more to getting to the continent of Africa and then hopping on another, you know, relatively cheap one to three hour flight to get to your final destination. I think that's the way to do it.
I just looked earlier today. You can fly from, Washington, DC, Dulles to Loma in Togo for a 30 miles and a hundred and $37. A 30,000 miles. A 30 miles. Tara, do we have a bargain for you?
No. A 30,000 miles and a hundred and $37 round trip by booking through, ANA Mileage Plan, the Japanese airline, to which you can transfer points from American Express. So if you have points saved up from an American Express Gold or Platinum card, you transfer them to ANA. Those transfers typically take, anywhere between twenty four to seventy two hours, but there's a there's generally speaking a lot of awards based on Ethiopian, on those many flights, to and from The US. So that's probably my starting point.
What do you have for Tara? Yeah. When I flew back from Kenya after my honeymoon, we flew Turkish. The Istanbul or the Nairobi Two Istanbul leg wasn't the fanciest seat. It's a two two two, and they technically called it an angled flat, although I could not tell the difference if it wasn't lie flat.
But the that flight did depart at 4AM, which is a little rough to connect into the bank going back to The US, navigating the Nairobi Airport at two in the morning, probably wouldn't recommend that. But, it was a pretty cheap redemption. We booked it through LifeMiles, which is, how my name ended up three times on my boarding pass. A story for another day. We don't have time for that.
Gunnar Olsen Olsen Olsen Olsen struggling through the Nairobi Airport. I would pay good money to see that. Oh, I did pay good money to get out of that conundrum. But if my recommendation to you, Tara, if you can't find a good option, I'd recommend booking a refundable or award flight in economy or premium economy, to take your trip, and then I would roll the dice on finding some last minute business availability. This is something I've had some success with, and not everybody loves this strategy because it is a bit of gambling, but I do.
It basically ensures that you're gonna be able to take your trip no matter what in economy or premium economy. And then, in the few weeks before your trip, look for that last minute business class availability because it does pop up on airlines that you actually do wanna fly. So, just stay on it, but make sure you have something booked so you at least know you're taking your trip. And if you have to gut it out in economy, you have to gut it out in economy. But at least you got to go to Kenya, and I couldn't recommend it more.
And any advice, Tara? No. You know, book if if you're gonna kinda take that gamble and book economy and and hope that something opens up as your trip draws closer. Just booking that initial economy flight with miles is so, so important because then you don't have to worry about, you know, getting a voucher from the airline if you book with cash. In most cases, most airlines, especially the the big US airlines, but increasingly, some of the big foreign airline programs that we know and love and use a lot charge either reasonable cancellation fees to cancel that flight and then rebook something in business class if that opens up, or they don't charge anything at all.
So, you know, kind of keeping your options open, making sure you can make that trip happen while hoping that something a little bit better in business class opens up is a great way to make sure you can take this trip. Yeah. Absolutely. Alright, Kyle. We never planned to have this segment, but a listener forced our hand.
So we're going to award the first ever listener of the week of the Thrifty Traveler podcast. So in episode four, the hotels episode, where Kyle tried to convert me from Hyatt to Hilton, and in that episode, I forced a really cringey pool metaphor that kinda took on a life of its own over the course of the podcast. And in the listener question section, I promised extra points for anyone who left a review, continuing on this pool metaphor, without explaining what extra points were. But, our listener, Rosie c, delivered, and she's getting extra points as our first ever listener of the week. Rosie's review is, I love this podcast.
It's like diving into the deep end of points and miles but with floaties. The hosts are down to earth, funny, and share realistic travel stories that actually feel doable. It's the perfect poolside listen, entertaining, informative, and no risk of drowning in complicated jargon. Highly recommend if you wanna laugh while leveling up your travel game. First of all, way too kind, Rosie.
Thank you so much. But also your, continuation of our metaphor was just perfect. There's understanding the assignment, and then there's what Rosie did. Also, her review is is titled, quote, Making a Splash and Travel Hacks. So, Rosie, you, you took our pained cringy metaphors and and brought them to a new level.
So enjoy your extra points, which are worthless and, can't be redeemed anywhere, but you'll you'll love them all the same. Exactly. Rosie, you're the you're the best. Thank you so much. You're the recipient of our first ever listener of the week of the Thrifty Traveler podcast.
If if you want us to answer your question, email us at podcast@thriftytraveler.com, and we might feature it on next week's show as well. And to close the show, like always, we're gonna do on the spot, and it's my turn to put Kyle on the spot this week. You ready? Let's do it. Okay.
It is the haters episode after all. Kyle, what destination would you not go back to that you visited? I don't know that there's that there's anywhere that I've been where I say I'm never going back there. I'm lucky in that regard. There are, however, a handful of destinations that I would be just fine not going to again.
And the first one that comes to mind is Dubai. I'm very glad we went. We fit it into, you know, a big trip that we took a few years ago going to Turkey and Oman and then stopped for a few days in Dubai before making our way back to The States. Saw some cool things, but Dubai just doesn't grab me in that way. It just didn't do anything special for me in the same way that even Oman, you know, just, an hour or so flight away did.
So, that's not to to rip on on anybody who's got Dubai on their wish list. I don't wanna yuck anyone's yum here. But, Dubai just the all the glitz and the glam and the obscene amount of real estate development that seems to be driving that entire economy. It's just, yeah, it just didn't catch me in the way that does some other people. Yeah.
It doesn't have to be a full on haters guide to Dubai. It's more, you know, destination you wouldn't go back to could also mean, I've seen it. I get it. I'm glad I went kinda thing, but that's a good one. Alright.
Thank you so much for listening to the Thrifty Traveler podcast. If you would rate us five stars on your podcast platform of choice, it would be a huge help to us. Also, like and subscribe to Thrifty Traveler on YouTube where you can watch these episodes if you so dare. And, send this episode to someone you know who needs a vacation. Let's try and spread the word about this great show here.
And if you have feedback for us, send me a note at podcast@thriftytraveler.com. We would love to hear from you. Kyle, tell us about the TT podcast team. This episode was produced by our cofounder, Nick Serati, and the guy to my right, Gunnar Olson Olson Olson. It was edited by David Strutt.
Our theme music is by Benjamin Tissot. See you next week. See you.